TL;DR

The line between breakthrough and slow death is a single decision: keep going or cut losses. Without an objective definition of “good,” teams drift, polish, and iterate forever—fuelled by sunk‑cost thinking. Name the finish line early, then choose bravely when you reach it.

The invisible handbrake: sunk‑cost thinking

Sunk cost is money, time, or emotion you’ve already paid and can’t get back. The human bug is believing that past effort justifies future effort: “We’ve spent eighteen months on this map editor—we can’t bin it now.” But the universe doesn’t refund hours; it only charges new ones. Every fresh sprint is an all‑new bet.

I once watched a prototype swallow three quarters of a budget simply because, week after week, the team felt closer than ever to magic. They weren’t lying; they were just adding proximity bias to sunk cost. The truth arrived when we forced a binary choice—ship exactly as‑is or kill it. We shipped, the players shrugged, and we learned in three days what we’d half‑known for six months.

Iteration without a target = infinity loop

Iteration is powerful only when you know what “good” looks like. Without a crisp, external, measurable goal, you can tweak copy, colours, and combat stats forever. Endless iteration feels productive—stand‑ups are busy, Trello cards move—but progress is fictional.

One decision from greatness (or freedom)

Greatness isn’t the feature nobody quits talking about; it’s the moment you decide, with evidence, that the feature can or cannot achieve its goal. That decision liberates talent to focus on the next winnable battle. Stay undecided and mediocrity lingers.

How I try to avoid the trap now

1. Write the kill criteria up front. “We kill the feature if DAU doesn’t rise 5% in two weeks.” No ifs, no buts.

2. Time‑box iteration cycles. Three rounds max; after that, decide.

3. Separate pride from product. Praise the learning, not the survival of the idea.

4. Run pre‑mortems. Imagine the project flops; list why; solve or accept and move on.

5. Ask ‘Would we start this today?’ If the answer is no, turn that into action.

Quick takeaway

Past effort is a receipt, not a reason. Define “good,” make the call, and you’re always one decision away from greatness—or at least from getting your best people onto work that has a future.

Estimated read: 4 minutes
Category: IFUHWIL
Date: 

Been caught in an endless loop yourself? Or dodged one? I’d love the war story.